Hi! 

English Premier League is in full swing now.  Mid November there will come the time to decide whether to continue or not with my EPL over/under strategy. As I have promised and to help me decide I did full summary of last 2014/15 season:

Starting bank: 3000€

Bet total: 9339€

ROI: 6.07%

Final bank : 3567€

Return on starting bank: 18.9%

Number of matches : 22 (19 bets on over 2.5 goals, 3 bets on under)

Win ratio : 36.4%

And it did not went as bad as I thought. If you check my last post you will see that I did back test the strategy last winter and only started to bet for real in mid March. And after 5 bets I ended up with -0.01% ROI overall.

But when I have back tested the whole 2014/15 season, the strategy finished with +6.07% ROI. There were 22 matches which qualified, using my partial Kelly stakes sum of all bets was 9339€ and profit was 567€. 

And that would also mean that starting bank of 3000€ would be 3567€ or 18.9% higher at the seasons end.

Now the bad news there was bad streak involved, 8 loosing matches in the row. Strategy was bailed out by matches where there was big discrepancy between fair odds and odds markets offered.

There is also time involved in researching and testing this. I reckon it would be at least 2hours/week since the mid November.

What do you think, should I keep at it or ditch it? Should I modify it and bet on those super value matches only?

Let me know.