Hi! 

English Premier League is in full swing now.  Mid November there will come the time to decide whether to continue or not with my EPL over/under strategy. As I have promised and to help me decide I did full summary of last 2014/15 season:

Starting bank: 3000€

Bet total: 9339€

ROI: 6.07%

Final bank : 3567€

Return on starting bank: 18.9%

Number of matches : 22 (19 bets on over 2.5 goals, 3 bets on under)

Win ratio : 36.4%

And it did not went as bad as I thought. If you check my last post you will see that I did back test the strategy last winter and only started to bet for real in mid March. And after 5 bets I ended up with -0.01% ROI overall.

But when I have back tested the whole 2014/15 season, the strategy finished with +6.07% ROI. There were 22 matches which qualified, using my partial Kelly stakes sum of all bets was 9339€ and profit was 567€. 

And that would also mean that starting bank of 3000€ would be 3567€ or 18.9% higher at the seasons end.

Now the bad news there was bad streak involved, 8 loosing matches in the row. Strategy was bailed out by matches where there was big discrepancy between fair odds and odds markets offered.

There is also time involved in researching and testing this. I reckon it would be at least 2hours/week since the mid November.

What do you think, should I keep at it or ditch it? Should I modify it and bet on those super value matches only?

Let me know.

Season summary

In this post I will do a summary of 2014/2015 season for my Premier league strategy. It finished about break even.
Last bet on Man U vs Arsenal finished with U 2,5 goals and a loss of 150€.
There were 5 bets in total, all on over 2,5 goals.

Starting bank: 3000€
Total profit on 17/5/2015: -150€
ROI: -0.01%
Final bank on  17/5/2015: 2994€

I know that for some of you this will look very flaky. But remember there were only 5 bets so break even scenario is normal sequence.
I started placing bets only in March so in the next post I will do the data for whole season. What would had happen if we started to bet in October?

Good luck for all in June!

Strategy tip

Hey all!
I hope you doing well.
Last pick for the PL strategy was a loosing one.
This Sunday we have a match between Man U and Arsenal which qualifies for strategy.
It is bet on over 2.5, currently at 1.92 at Betfair. The price is drifting so I will update my stake size closer to the kick off in the comments.But I can say now it will be around 0.18

Starting bank: 3000€
Total profit on 03/5/2015: -53€
ROI: 22.5%
Final bank on  03/5/2015: 3144€


Good luck!

Weekend pick

Last weekend we had first loss since the beginning. Arsenal - Chelsea finished 0-0.

Starting bank: 3000€
Total profit on 25/4/2015: -165€
ROI: 33,6%
Final bank on  25/4/2015: 3197€


Today we have a match which qualifies for the system.
Tottenham vs Man City - over 2,5 at 1,6 and 0,07 Kelly stake
That is why I bet 52.5€.

Good luck!

I'm a dad!

Hi all!

In this post I will do the summary of my strategy, work I have done in past two weeks and I will give a strategy tip.

The strategy:
Second pick on Man Utd and Man City could not have gone any better! After 27 minutes of the game our bet was decided as a winner. The game has finished with 6 goals in total.

My profit from this market was higher because of another strategy I used. Of course I will count in only profit from the strategy I discuss in this blog.

I have two things to say about this game.
Before the match, odds on overs drifted. The cause for this could be fact that it was pouring rain.
I consider soaked pitch with puddles and ripped grass the only reason I would consider not betting even when the strategy indicates to do so.
But football pitches of these top Premier league teams are the best in the world. The teams paid millions of pounds to have pitches strengthened with fibers to make sure they are in top condition in any weather.
I would say this factor decreased value of our bet only by couple of percents.

Another thing I want to discuss is the fact that I don't understand how it is possible that odds for overs can be so high for a match like this!
Because when you look at the stats, average goals scored per game, number of games with over 2.5, previous confrontations of these two teams, everything is pointing to low odds on overs!
I think it might be something mathematical, like relationship between O/U and some other market, because it clearly doesn't make sense.
If somebody can shed some light on this I will be very thankful!

Starting bank: 3000€
Total profit on 12/4/2015: 136€
ROI: 86%
Final bank on 12/4/2015: 3362€

Last two weeks:
Last week I was focused on few projects:
finding value comparing match odds to handicaps
bookie bonuses
searching for value tipsters

There is still some research to be done on the first but it's promising.
Regarding to tipsters. I haven't found anyone so far which would give at least few picks a week But at least I have a few which give a few tips a month as I do with my strategy.


This week I've worked only about 15 hours. The reason is my first child was born!
It's a great experience and I couldn't work at all. I think it will give me good motivation now, when we were blessed by this miracle!


Strategy tip:
This weekend, there will be match which qualifies for strategy, Arsenal vs Chelsea on Sunday 26/4.
Again it's bet on over 2,5 goals.
Odds for overs should be 1.78, they are 2.3 now.
Using Kelly formula to calculate the stake according to our edge we should bet 0.22 of the bank.
That is why using partial Kelly stake I will risk precisely 165€ or 5.5% of my starting bank.

Have a great weekend!

Strategy tip

After some time we have another tip which qualifies for Over/Under strategy (if you don't know what this is, read previous post).
It is the game between Manchester United and Manchester City on 12/4. Stats are saying that under odds should be 2.6, they are 2.08 on Betfair. Trend is upward.

Using Kelly formula to calculate the stake according to edge we should bet 0.20 of the bank.
That is why using partial Kelly stake I will risk precisely 150€ or 5% of my starting bank.

Good look to all in finding value and taking good risks!

Over / Under strategy for English Premier League

First I want to report what was the result of Chi-Square testing for my over/under strategy. For 272 matches which qualified for the strategy, test has shown us that there is slightly over 5% chance that my strategy is the result of luck (normal distribution) rather than edge.
That doesn't sound like a lot but in statistics it is actually on the edge of statistical relevance.
But we have to take in the account that this was a simple Chi-Square test which doesn't take in the account what is the edge for each individual bet!
So for example it doesn't take in the account when fair odds are 1.4 and market odds are 1.9 and Kelly bet is 39% of the bank or when indicated fair odds are 1.4 market odds are 1.6 and we should bet only 20% of the bank. It looks only at the average edge and treats both tips only either as a win or loss.
So taking this in the account and adjusting results for edge differentiation we can be confident that actual chance of no statistical edge in our strategy is under 1%.


On 15th of March we had first bet on the match which qualified for our strategy. Indicated bet was on over 2.5 with odds of 1.83 between Man U vs Tottenham and already after 34 minutes of play when Man U increased their lead to 3-0 the bet was settled as a win.

I write these posts at least once per two weeks, primarily for myself as a part of my accountability. 
But I was asked to share more about my bank management. So from now on I will not only post tips for this strategy but also exactly how many units you should bet.

I use Kelly criterion formula for this betting strategy.
So for example last tip was on over 2.5 at odds of 1.83 and according to Kelly criterion bet had such an edge that it was worth 0.36 (36.1%) of our starting bank.You can do partial Kelly bet to decrease risk to 1/4 or more as I do.
How do I calculate my bet?
I decided that starting bank for this will be 3000€ and I will always bet 1/4 of full bet according to Kelly criterion.

So 3000/100*36.1 = 1083€ which would be the full bet according to Kelly criterion.
I divide that by 4 which in my case gives me bet of 270.75€ I should risk.

You can see from my P&L statement from a certain bookie that my bet for this match was 250€ and the corresponding profit was 207,98€. I did bet another 21€ at another bookie with a profit of 17.64 for a total bet of 271 euros.

Starting bank: 3000€
Total profit on 15/3/2015: 226€
ROI: 83.3%
Final bank on 15/3/2015: 3226€

Remember, ROI will drop a lot with a time BUT our bank will also grow. 
One more thing: the odds before the match actually moved out from 1.83 to 1.95 on Betfair. I don't know the reason of the movement but remember this: one thing is odds movement and another thing, completely different, is actual chance of winning!
So don't expect that the odds will always come down on this strategy, they might go in our favor and make the edge even bigger.
I will always calculate the edge and amount to bet at least one day in advance so there is still a lot of time for bet placement.

Also I'm always interested in valuable edges and strategies!

All the best!

Looking for the edges

In last two weeks I made quite a good progress. I did some further statistical studies and testing and I have found 2 solid tipsters which I started follow.

Tomorrow will be there the first match (Man U - Tottenham) which will qualify for my own betting strategy I was working on recently. According to my model fair odds for over 2,5 should be in 1.5-1.6 range, they are 1,83 instead so I will take an advantage.

What kind of betting management will I use?
I will go for partial Kelly stake which means I will bet about 1/3 of what full Kelly stake would be.

My plan for week ahead is to find some more edges, especially external which are much easier to find than going through backtesting. When I exhaust external sources I will dig through the stats.

There is so much opportunity in this industry, you just have to know what you want to do, do your work, be disciplined and the rest will take care of itself.
Good luck

Where I stand?

So as I have mentioned  I was sports arber for 8 years. While that was working very well for me I didn't really looked into other betting strategies. Since 2011 my profits decreased, I was spending more than I earned and I started looking into other areas.
I was hoping to build a betting bot but I didn't reach anything consistently profitable. To be honest I was looking for quick and easy fix and was too much spoiled by my previous successes.
Since last summer I decided to follow value betting approach, and started looking more into difference between prices offered by the markets and fairer prices deducted from statistics.
I have developed statistical system for English Premier league and back-tested it for last 6 seasons. Using Kelly formula as a staking method it came with profit of 900%, if starting every year with the same bank.
What is my plan now?
I want to find out what is the chance, if at all, that profit from this strategy (272 matches) could be achieved just by a chance. Then I want to put this strategy to practice.
Another edge I have is external, I'm following one prediction service which gives yearly about 30% on bank.
My bank diminished over the years to about 4000€. Now I want to find another edges which will give me the option to grow it.
For now I'm focused only on statistical analysis and pre-match odds. I will do a blogpost about my progress once per 2 weeks.
Good luck to all!

Welcome!

Hi, I'm Alchemist and this is my betting blog. For last 8 years I have been sports arber and now I'm dedicaded to find another ways how to profit from betting. This blog will document my progress. I will report here on my P/L and also post about strategies.