In this post I will do the summary of my strategy, work I have done in past two weeks and I will give a strategy tip.
The strategy:
Second pick on Man Utd and Man City could not have gone any better! After 27 minutes of the game our bet was decided as a winner. The game has finished with 6 goals in total.
I have two things to say about this game.
Before the match, odds on overs drifted. The cause for this could be fact that it was pouring rain.
I consider soaked pitch with puddles and ripped grass the only reason I would consider not betting even when the strategy indicates to do so.
But football pitches of these top Premier league teams are the best in the world. The teams paid millions of pounds to have pitches strengthened with fibers to make sure they are in top condition in any weather.
I would say this factor decreased value of our bet only by couple of percents.
Another thing I want to discuss is the fact that I don't understand how it is possible that odds for overs can be so high for a match like this!
Because when you look at the stats, average goals scored per game, number of games with over 2.5, previous confrontations of these two teams, everything is pointing to low odds on overs!
I think it might be something mathematical, like relationship between O/U and some other market, because it clearly doesn't make sense.
If somebody can shed some light on this I will be very thankful!
Starting bank: 3000€
Total profit on 12/4/2015: 136€
ROI: 86%
Final bank on 12/4/2015: 3362€
Last two weeks:
Last week I was focused on few projects:
finding value comparing match odds to handicaps
bookie bonuses
searching for value tipsters
There is still some research to be done on the first but it's promising.
Regarding to tipsters. I haven't found anyone so far which would give at least few picks a week But at least I have a few which give a few tips a month as I do with my strategy.
This week I've worked only about 15 hours. The reason is my first child was born!
It's a great experience and I couldn't work at all. I think it will give me good motivation now, when we were blessed by this miracle!
Strategy tip:
This weekend, there will be match which qualifies for strategy, Arsenal vs Chelsea on Sunday 26/4.
Again it's bet on over 2,5 goals.
Odds for overs should be 1.78, they are 2.3 now.
Using Kelly formula to calculate the stake according to our edge we should bet 0.22 of the bank.
That is why using partial Kelly stake I will risk precisely 165€ or 5.5% of my starting bank.
Have a great weekend!
