After some time we have another tip which qualifies for Over/Under strategy (if you don't know what this is, read previous post).
It is the game between Manchester United and Manchester City on 12/4. Stats are saying that under odds should be 2.6, they are 2.08 on Betfair. Trend is upward.
Using Kelly formula to calculate the stake according to edge we should bet 0.20 of the bank.
That is why using partial Kelly stake I will risk precisely 150€ or 5% of my starting bank.
Good look to all in finding value and taking good risks!
Hi. If the fair odds are 2.6 and you are betting 2.08 there is no value. Am I getting something wrong or have you just mistaken and you meant 1.6 as fair odds?
ReplyDeleteHi James,
ReplyDeleteindeed, odds for under 2.5 should be 2.6 and odds for over 1.6, they are much different at the moment so we either back over 2.5 odds or lay under at betting exchange.
That's what I didn't mention in my post.
Sorry for confusing you.
Have a good day.