So as I have mentioned I was sports arber for 8 years. While that was working very well for me I didn't really looked into other betting strategies. Since 2011 my profits decreased, I was spending more than I earned and I started looking into other areas.
I was hoping to build a betting bot but I didn't reach anything consistently profitable. To be honest I was looking for quick and easy fix and was too much spoiled by my previous successes.
Since last summer I decided to follow value betting approach, and started looking more into difference between prices offered by the markets and fairer prices deducted from statistics.
I have developed statistical system for English Premier league and back-tested it for last 6 seasons. Using Kelly formula as a staking method it came with profit of 900%, if starting every year with the same bank.
What is my plan now?
I want to find out what is the chance, if at all, that profit from this strategy (272 matches) could be achieved just by a chance. Then I want to put this strategy to practice.
Another edge I have is external, I'm following one prediction service which gives yearly about 30% on bank.
My bank diminished over the years to about 4000€. Now I want to find another edges which will give me the option to grow it.
For now I'm focused only on statistical analysis and pre-match odds. I will do a blogpost about my progress once per 2 weeks.
Good luck to all!
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