2017 - One big hurdle overcomed

Year over year the difference between my assets (only my bankroll + my investments are counted here, not my house,car and other minor things I own) and liabilities went up from -20308€ for 7.1.2017 to 2333€ on 5.1 2018.

In plain English this means that if I would have to pay off my mortgage and loans right now with cash on hand, I would be left with 2333€ euros left.

This is breakthrough as I am finally in green numbers in case I have to pay off the debt immediately. This is what I was focusing at least last two years! And it feels good to break it finally. I feel humble and grateful.

as of 5.1.2018

Betting bank: 49574€
Gold + receivables: 4357€
--------------------------------
Portfolio total: 86953€

assets - liabilities: 2333€

Apart from this I have saved another 1500€ which I don't carry on my balance sheet because I keep it as an emergency cash but it will be counted in my 2017 profit because I had to earn it too.

As you can see compared to 2015 where I saved couple of thousands and 2016 where I saved 8000€ this year I saved 24141€. It was thanks to new digital currencies. I invested 8000 in cryptocurrencies in summer 2017 and it has grown over 3x to more than 30 000€. If not for that I would save much less. I almost didn't update prices in cryptos since I invested. Prices were going up hugely but I wanted to prevent myself from freaking out too much on positive or negative side. I did update on prices on 5.1.2018 and do it again only next year. We will see where cryptos go from here.
I am big believer long term and I will diversify a bit this year. My main holdings are ETH, LTC and BTC.

Now I diminished threat I was feeling from being exposed to potential debt. This was burden for me. I feel more secure and my goal for this year of 2018 is not monetary but rather I will focus directly on what I want to achieve with the help of money. 
I want to move my family from my small village where I grew up to capital. This I want to do to raise my self-confidence and to get more opportunities. I like the energy of city and feel this is what I have to do. Most economical way to achieve this will probably be buying property on mortgage rather than renting.  
In terms of money, if I can save 24000€ again this can be used as down-payment for the flat and allow me to move.

In 2017 I significantly upgraded my working tools and environment with new laptops, phone, e-reader and so on. This allowed me to work away from home from cafes and co-working spaces and have variety in my work. This year I will also invest in some tools like 11 inch ereader for reading PDFs and books which I enjoy and another displays and gadgets but most of my needs regarding working tools are met.

My secondary goal is to be more secure and happier. I had this financial and health threats taking center stage of my focus and I see how better I feel now. Of course it will not be just cake walk from now on and I have to accept crises will come up again. But there is more control over my life right now. In terms of feeling safe and comfortable I want to work less in betting and relax more and maybe venture in another job.

Summer 2017 summary

The difference between my assets (only my bankroll + my investments are counted here, not my house,car and other minor things I own) and liabilities went up from -13466€ on 30.6.2017 to -12720€ on 1.9 2017.

In plain English this means that if I would have to pay off my mortgage and loans right now with cash on hand, I would be still short of 12720€ euros. I would have to sold some of my possessions or use my house equity.

Total July-August income: € 5485€
Earnings from betting: 5085 €
Other income: 400€

Expenses: 4739€

Savings:746€

Betting bank (1.9.2017): 47800€

June 2017

The difference between my assets (only my bankroll + my investments is counted here, not my house,car and other minor things I own) and liabilities went up from -14866€ on 31.5.2017 to -13466€ on 30.6.2017.


In plain English this means that if I would have to pay off my mortgage and loans tomorrow and use only my betting bank for this purpose, I would be still short of 13466 euros. I would have to sold some of my possessions or use my house equity.

Total June income: 4648€
Earnings from betting: 3448 €
Other income: 1200€

Expenses: 3248€

Savings:1400€

May 2017

The difference between my assets (only my bankroll + my investments is counted here, not my house,car and other minor things I own) and liabilities went up from -16187€ on 27.4.2017 to -14866€ on 31.5.2017.

Earnings from betting: 3713€
Other income:50€

Expenses: 2371€

Savings:1392€

April tumble

The difference between my assets (only my bankroll + my investments is counted here, not my house,car and other minor things I own) and liabilities went down from -15074€ on 5.4.2017 to -16187€ on 5.4.2017.

My expenses for this period were 1700€ and earnings from betting 587€.
I didn´t have any other income this month.
It shows how demotivating and annoying is to have a bad month and not have other income source or a passive income.

March 2017

The difference between my assets (only my bankroll + my investments is counted here, not my house,car and other minor things I own) and liabilities went up from -15980€ on 7.3.2017 to -14407€ on 5.4.2017.



My earnings from betting were at 2833€ and I have spend 3200€ so my savings just from betting are negative -367€.
Fortunately I had profits from other sources. I sold one studio for higher profit than planed in last month (2300€ instead of 2000€) so there was 300€. Another profit comes from real estate I bought. It is  profit of 1400€ as a very conservative estimate. Another 240€ came in as a small windfall.

So all in all, in March 2017 I have earned 4673€ and I have saved 1573€.

February 2017

The difference between my assets (only my bankroll + my investments is counted here, not my house,car and other minor things I own) and liabilities went up from -18708€ on 8.2.2017 to -15980€ on 7.3.2017.

In this period my earnings from betting were 3558€ in total and I have spend 2180€ making my total savings from betting in February 1378€.
Rest of the savings for this month is from my real estate investment. It is 2000€ but it is only an estimate. But very conservative estimate.
So in total in February 2017 I have saved 3378€.

January 2017 Am I right?

The difference between my assets (only my bankroll is counted here, not my house,car and other minor assets) and liabilities went up from -20308€ on 7.1.2017 to -18708€ on 8.2.2017.

Technically, I did earn 2939€, have spent 2700€ so savings are only 239€. But now I count investment gold I bought (1200€) and p2p loan (150€) as my assets. So now I have 1589€ more.

Review of December and whole year 2016

After December, the difference between my assets (only my bankroll is counted here, not my house,car and other minor assets) and liabilities went down from -19086€ to -20308€ for 7.1.2017.

But I count some assets (investment gold 1200€, peer to peer loan 150€) outside of my betting bank

Still,the last few months very pretty bad when it comes to bank. I have spent more than I earned.

November was very weak , but October was brutal. December was plus month again.

Review of 2016

I failed to meet 2016 goal which was to save at least 15000€.

At the beginning of the year I was -27000€ down. I saved around 8000€ which is 53% of my original goal. Kind of disappointing.

I will do some adjustments this January. I did a lot of work on myself last year, read over 40 books again and feel I need to be more involved now.

For 2017 I'm setting myself 10x goal of 80 000 euros saved or invested.

Review of November 2016

Review of October 2016

In October, the difference between my assets (only my bankroll is counted here, not my house,car and other minor assets) and liabilities went down from -15411€ to -19086€ for 04.11.2016.

In other words 3675€ down from last month.

Bad month. Looking back I see that there wasn't much to do. But I didn't acknowledge that and carried on as usual. Also there were some losses and big expenses. 

Now I downsized on amount of bets. No point in chasing bets when there is no value. Also I will rather earn less but be more reliable.

My eyesight problem is gone. The doctor changed my dioptrics and gave me lower dioptrics with blue light filter for computer work. Relief is huge, lesson learned.

I invested some bankroll money in small studio which I will rent out. It was very good opportunity and it will be my first income producing asset.

Music stopped in my betting so for November my goal is to break even. 

Review of September

After September, the difference between my assets (only my bankroll is counted here, not my house,car and other minor assets) and liabilities went up from -19519€ to -15411€ for 03.10.2016.

In other words 4108€ up from last month.

That was a good part but now comes the explanation:) This good result did not come from my work but because I downsized on my car. 

My work savings are actually negative, -290€ for September.

The reason for this is a combination of few things. Family problems, issue with eyesight, weak sport markets and bet voided are culprits. For first two reasons I could not work as much as I would like to and I traveled a lot. Also goal for September was too high (3061€) because historically fall and beginning of winter used to be worst months for me.

September problems spilled in October but now, as of 9 of October at least the biggest problem is solved.

From a higher perspective the most important thing should be that I actually increased my assets and also decreased liabilities. I used my car equity for paying out part of my debt (2000€) and buying some investment gold (1oz).
My favorite investment is 16 books about betting and taking chances which are on their way to me. Cannot wait to read some of it!
The rest I added to my bank which is currently 31 200€. I have another 7900€ of available short term credit.

The goal for October will be to gain some ground and to save at least 1500€. I will do my best.

Review of last month

August was a special month for me.

Difference between my assets (only my bankroll is counted here, not my house,car and other minor assets) and liabilities went up from -22300€ to -19519€ for 31.8.2016.
In other words 2781€ saved in last month and 60% difference between July and August in savings!
August is best month of this year hands down.

As of 31.8 my bankroll is 29181€ and I have another 7900€ which I can use anytime I need(for an interest).

Another notable stats:
Amount saved is about 10% of my bank. This would give me 120% in savings at this rate yearly.
My overall earnings for August were actually much higher, 4980€, so I spent 2200€ last month mainly on utility bills, insurance, gas and food.
So my return on assets (ROA) for August was 17%.

To be earning 5000€ monthly feels very good. Especially when I look back where I was just 2 years ago.
After 15 days I had already 2000€ saved and I saw myself touching 4000€ in savings at the end. But it didn't happen maybe just because I pushed myself too hard and was getting too far ahead.

I always want to think how rare it is on larger scale. I would say around 80% of western world is below this number and probably 97% of the entire world population.

So for next month of September my goal is to save just 10% more than in August so 3061€ is the number. After all if I would increase my savings by 10% each moth for next 12 months, in August 2017 I would be saving 8730€ monthly!

My goal for a year 2016 was to save up 15000€. To achieve this one I need around 6000€ more saved till the end of the year. That means 1500€ saved for each remaining month.
When do you think I will reach it?

August 2016 update

Things went rather well since the last post on 15th of June.
Difference between my assets (only my bankroll is counted here, not my house,car and other minor assets) and liabilities went up from -24900€ to -22300€ for 31.7.2016
In other words 2600€ saved in 45 days or savings rate of 1733€ monthly!
Then between June and July I spent 11 days on holidays with my family which not only meant irregular expense of 1600€ but also I really worked only around 30 days.
July was also the 5th month in a row in which I saved money.
So considering my last years performance where I was consistently losing money year after year this is truly great and deserved turnaround!
Goal for this year was to save at least 15000€ and if I will keep up with current earnings and savings rates I should get there.

Another important (most important) story of last 45 days is my health problems are almost solved. I have an irritable bowel syndrome (IBS).
What was helping me with digestion was HCL betaine hydrochloric acid which is just a stomach acid and some enzymes for food digestion like pancreatin.
Levels of HCL I was taking was alarming - 4 to 5 (2600 to 3250mg) capsules with every main meal and results were still sketchy.
But on Tuesday last week I had particularly bad andpainful digestion problem after just drinking 4 cups of earl grey tea. I've done some searching and found about FODMAP diet. And man, what a relief that was!
Following this diet I feel so much better. I don't need almost any stomach acid, when I take more than half a capsule I get serious heartburn.I also barely use enzymes.
It is interesting there is a connection between this diet and stomach acid production. If somebody can shed a light on this I will gladly listen.

Third important thing is I have found an opportunity outside the whole gambling,betting industry. It will require some cash, modest doses of my time but should provide good rates of return. It's still fresh and I personally didn't obtain any return on it but I saw first hand how it's done.
I will dedicate some time for it and let's see if it can provide.

Main challenge now is not to get healthy, not finding a way to black numbers but be looking for opportunities and keep growing with same humility and dedication as when I was burning money month in month out.

So what happened since October 2015?

October, November and December were bad months. At work I was struggling again. October I finished with 600€ less than at the start of the month. In November I broke even but I started to have health issues and worked 30% less. In December I lost another 900€ and my health problem was at worst.

Terrible period. But I tried new things and a few of them showed promise.
January was break even month. In February I have lost 500€. That was last bad month. Since then things got better. March, April and May I cumulatively increased my bank by 3700€.
I do mistakes from time to time. There was one mistake which went my way and I got 800€ from that. But even without that mistake, it is still almost 1000€/month saved.
In brutto the numbers are even better. I had a lot of expenses and invested in new tools (PC, display, smart phone etc.)  and well being of my family.

What is even better this improvement is systematic!
Firstly in May I remortgaged my debt which not only decreased interest and amount of monthly payment but also drastically increased my bank. As of 13.6.2016 my bank is 27070€. This kind of money makes my work much easier! Also I have access to another 6350€ available anytime in case I need them.
Interest I pay on debt went down from 10% to 2.8% and monthly payment from 480€ to 265€. There is still opportunity for shedding 65€ monthly and bringing interest to 1.8% p.a.

Secondly, I have now great working strategies. Nobody can tell how long they will be around but I would say this opportunity will last a year maybe more.

My overall debt is also lower.
In October I was 26000€ under water. Now it's 24900€.
So, let's roll!

Summer, autumn 2015 summary

This will be the post where I summarize where I was at in October 2015 for future reference. I wrote this on October 9th 2015 but didn't publish somehow. Shortly I will post a second part about the time since October 2015 till now, June 2016:

 

Regarding my work and bankroll - July was great, best month of the year for me, August was also great about 70% of July profit. I saved and increased my betting bank by about 3 500€ in those two months.

I was stagnating in September, earned less, had bigger expenditures and finished with bank smaller by couple of hundred €s than at the beginning of the month. 

My bank is currently at 13 800€, highest it was this year. I owe 23 800€ at average interest of 10% so I am still 9 800€ underwater. But now because of my work and various strategies I learned, the trend is positive and upward. It is much better position than have a bank of 23 800€ and be losing money.

Till the end of the year I want to save & pay out at least 4000€ of the worst debt and that will bring my interest rate I pay for credit to 7%. I will be happy with that interest for next year and my creditor is happy with that too.

* 

so this was written in October 15. It's correct except the mortgage debt is missing. Including mortgage, debt wasn't 23800€ but 39800€ so I was 26000€ underwater at the time.I will account for this debt in future calculations, as I have refinanced my debt completely with new mortgage. But I will not put my residential property in credit because its value is not clearly determined and it´s not an investment. But it´s safe to say it has much higher value than my mortgage debt. So bank is happy and me too because of very low interest, considering all circumstances.

Hi! 

English Premier League is in full swing now.  Mid November there will come the time to decide whether to continue or not with my EPL over/under strategy. As I have promised and to help me decide I did full summary of last 2014/15 season:

Starting bank: 3000€

Bet total: 9339€

ROI: 6.07%

Final bank : 3567€

Return on starting bank: 18.9%

Number of matches : 22 (19 bets on over 2.5 goals, 3 bets on under)

Win ratio : 36.4%

And it did not went as bad as I thought. If you check my last post you will see that I did back test the strategy last winter and only started to bet for real in mid March. And after 5 bets I ended up with -0.01% ROI overall.

But when I have back tested the whole 2014/15 season, the strategy finished with +6.07% ROI. There were 22 matches which qualified, using my partial Kelly stakes sum of all bets was 9339€ and profit was 567€. 

And that would also mean that starting bank of 3000€ would be 3567€ or 18.9% higher at the seasons end.

Now the bad news there was bad streak involved, 8 loosing matches in the row. Strategy was bailed out by matches where there was big discrepancy between fair odds and odds markets offered.

There is also time involved in researching and testing this. I reckon it would be at least 2hours/week since the mid November.

What do you think, should I keep at it or ditch it? Should I modify it and bet on those super value matches only?

Let me know.

Season summary

In this post I will do a summary of 2014/2015 season for my Premier league strategy. It finished about break even.
Last bet on Man U vs Arsenal finished with U 2,5 goals and a loss of 150€.
There were 5 bets in total, all on over 2,5 goals.

Starting bank: 3000€
Total profit on 17/5/2015: -150€
ROI: -0.01%
Final bank on  17/5/2015: 2994€

I know that for some of you this will look very flaky. But remember there were only 5 bets so break even scenario is normal sequence.
I started placing bets only in March so in the next post I will do the data for whole season. What would had happen if we started to bet in October?

Good luck for all in June!

Strategy tip

Hey all!
I hope you doing well.
Last pick for the PL strategy was a loosing one.
This Sunday we have a match between Man U and Arsenal which qualifies for strategy.
It is bet on over 2.5, currently at 1.92 at Betfair. The price is drifting so I will update my stake size closer to the kick off in the comments.But I can say now it will be around 0.18

Starting bank: 3000€
Total profit on 03/5/2015: -53€
ROI: 22.5%
Final bank on  03/5/2015: 3144€


Good luck!

Weekend pick

Last weekend we had first loss since the beginning. Arsenal - Chelsea finished 0-0.

Starting bank: 3000€
Total profit on 25/4/2015: -165€
ROI: 33,6%
Final bank on  25/4/2015: 3197€


Today we have a match which qualifies for the system.
Tottenham vs Man City - over 2,5 at 1,6 and 0,07 Kelly stake
That is why I bet 52.5€.

Good luck!

I'm a dad!

Hi all!

In this post I will do the summary of my strategy, work I have done in past two weeks and I will give a strategy tip.

The strategy:
Second pick on Man Utd and Man City could not have gone any better! After 27 minutes of the game our bet was decided as a winner. The game has finished with 6 goals in total.

My profit from this market was higher because of another strategy I used. Of course I will count in only profit from the strategy I discuss in this blog.

I have two things to say about this game.
Before the match, odds on overs drifted. The cause for this could be fact that it was pouring rain.
I consider soaked pitch with puddles and ripped grass the only reason I would consider not betting even when the strategy indicates to do so.
But football pitches of these top Premier league teams are the best in the world. The teams paid millions of pounds to have pitches strengthened with fibers to make sure they are in top condition in any weather.
I would say this factor decreased value of our bet only by couple of percents.

Another thing I want to discuss is the fact that I don't understand how it is possible that odds for overs can be so high for a match like this!
Because when you look at the stats, average goals scored per game, number of games with over 2.5, previous confrontations of these two teams, everything is pointing to low odds on overs!
I think it might be something mathematical, like relationship between O/U and some other market, because it clearly doesn't make sense.
If somebody can shed some light on this I will be very thankful!

Starting bank: 3000€
Total profit on 12/4/2015: 136€
ROI: 86%
Final bank on 12/4/2015: 3362€

Last two weeks:
Last week I was focused on few projects:
finding value comparing match odds to handicaps
bookie bonuses
searching for value tipsters

There is still some research to be done on the first but it's promising.
Regarding to tipsters. I haven't found anyone so far which would give at least few picks a week But at least I have a few which give a few tips a month as I do with my strategy.


This week I've worked only about 15 hours. The reason is my first child was born!
It's a great experience and I couldn't work at all. I think it will give me good motivation now, when we were blessed by this miracle!


Strategy tip:
This weekend, there will be match which qualifies for strategy, Arsenal vs Chelsea on Sunday 26/4.
Again it's bet on over 2,5 goals.
Odds for overs should be 1.78, they are 2.3 now.
Using Kelly formula to calculate the stake according to our edge we should bet 0.22 of the bank.
That is why using partial Kelly stake I will risk precisely 165€ or 5.5% of my starting bank.

Have a great weekend!

Strategy tip

After some time we have another tip which qualifies for Over/Under strategy (if you don't know what this is, read previous post).
It is the game between Manchester United and Manchester City on 12/4. Stats are saying that under odds should be 2.6, they are 2.08 on Betfair. Trend is upward.

Using Kelly formula to calculate the stake according to edge we should bet 0.20 of the bank.
That is why using partial Kelly stake I will risk precisely 150€ or 5% of my starting bank.

Good look to all in finding value and taking good risks!

Over / Under strategy for English Premier League

First I want to report what was the result of Chi-Square testing for my over/under strategy. For 272 matches which qualified for the strategy, test has shown us that there is slightly over 5% chance that my strategy is the result of luck (normal distribution) rather than edge.
That doesn't sound like a lot but in statistics it is actually on the edge of statistical relevance.
But we have to take in the account that this was a simple Chi-Square test which doesn't take in the account what is the edge for each individual bet!
So for example it doesn't take in the account when fair odds are 1.4 and market odds are 1.9 and Kelly bet is 39% of the bank or when indicated fair odds are 1.4 market odds are 1.6 and we should bet only 20% of the bank. It looks only at the average edge and treats both tips only either as a win or loss.
So taking this in the account and adjusting results for edge differentiation we can be confident that actual chance of no statistical edge in our strategy is under 1%.


On 15th of March we had first bet on the match which qualified for our strategy. Indicated bet was on over 2.5 with odds of 1.83 between Man U vs Tottenham and already after 34 minutes of play when Man U increased their lead to 3-0 the bet was settled as a win.

I write these posts at least once per two weeks, primarily for myself as a part of my accountability. 
But I was asked to share more about my bank management. So from now on I will not only post tips for this strategy but also exactly how many units you should bet.

I use Kelly criterion formula for this betting strategy.
So for example last tip was on over 2.5 at odds of 1.83 and according to Kelly criterion bet had such an edge that it was worth 0.36 (36.1%) of our starting bank.You can do partial Kelly bet to decrease risk to 1/4 or more as I do.
How do I calculate my bet?
I decided that starting bank for this will be 3000€ and I will always bet 1/4 of full bet according to Kelly criterion.

So 3000/100*36.1 = 1083€ which would be the full bet according to Kelly criterion.
I divide that by 4 which in my case gives me bet of 270.75€ I should risk.

You can see from my P&L statement from a certain bookie that my bet for this match was 250€ and the corresponding profit was 207,98€. I did bet another 21€ at another bookie with a profit of 17.64 for a total bet of 271 euros.

Starting bank: 3000€
Total profit on 15/3/2015: 226€
ROI: 83.3%
Final bank on 15/3/2015: 3226€

Remember, ROI will drop a lot with a time BUT our bank will also grow. 
One more thing: the odds before the match actually moved out from 1.83 to 1.95 on Betfair. I don't know the reason of the movement but remember this: one thing is odds movement and another thing, completely different, is actual chance of winning!
So don't expect that the odds will always come down on this strategy, they might go in our favor and make the edge even bigger.
I will always calculate the edge and amount to bet at least one day in advance so there is still a lot of time for bet placement.

Also I'm always interested in valuable edges and strategies!

All the best!

Looking for the edges

In last two weeks I made quite a good progress. I did some further statistical studies and testing and I have found 2 solid tipsters which I started follow.

Tomorrow will be there the first match (Man U - Tottenham) which will qualify for my own betting strategy I was working on recently. According to my model fair odds for over 2,5 should be in 1.5-1.6 range, they are 1,83 instead so I will take an advantage.

What kind of betting management will I use?
I will go for partial Kelly stake which means I will bet about 1/3 of what full Kelly stake would be.

My plan for week ahead is to find some more edges, especially external which are much easier to find than going through backtesting. When I exhaust external sources I will dig through the stats.

There is so much opportunity in this industry, you just have to know what you want to do, do your work, be disciplined and the rest will take care of itself.
Good luck

Where I stand?

So as I have mentioned  I was sports arber for 8 years. While that was working very well for me I didn't really looked into other betting strategies. Since 2011 my profits decreased, I was spending more than I earned and I started looking into other areas.
I was hoping to build a betting bot but I didn't reach anything consistently profitable. To be honest I was looking for quick and easy fix and was too much spoiled by my previous successes.
Since last summer I decided to follow value betting approach, and started looking more into difference between prices offered by the markets and fairer prices deducted from statistics.
I have developed statistical system for English Premier league and back-tested it for last 6 seasons. Using Kelly formula as a staking method it came with profit of 900%, if starting every year with the same bank.
What is my plan now?
I want to find out what is the chance, if at all, that profit from this strategy (272 matches) could be achieved just by a chance. Then I want to put this strategy to practice.
Another edge I have is external, I'm following one prediction service which gives yearly about 30% on bank.
My bank diminished over the years to about 4000€. Now I want to find another edges which will give me the option to grow it.
For now I'm focused only on statistical analysis and pre-match odds. I will do a blogpost about my progress once per 2 weeks.
Good luck to all!

Welcome!

Hi, I'm Alchemist and this is my betting blog. For last 8 years I have been sports arber and now I'm dedicaded to find another ways how to profit from betting. This blog will document my progress. I will report here on my P/L and also post about strategies.